On December 2, 2025, the bond market exhibited consistent gains throughout the trading day. Initially, bonds opened on a weaker note; however, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) quickly recovered to unchanged levels. The 10-year Treasury notes lagged in performance, only showing improvement in the afternoon.
Market Overview
Overall, there was no significant correlation with other financial markets, and no notable economic risks were noted on the calendar. The slow and steady gains in the bond market suggested a lack of distinct catalysts driving the movement.
Pending Economic Reports
The following day, investors anticipated data releases from ADP and ISM Services. These reports have the potential to influence the bond market significantly. The economic landscape was further complicated by data surrounding the government shutdown, which could heighten the relevance of private sector data.
Key Indicators
| Indicator | November Value | Forecast | Previous Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ISM Manufacturing Employment | 44.0 | – | 46.0 |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 48.2 | 48.6 | 48.7 |
| ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid | 58.5 | 59.5 | 58.0 |
Midday Highlights
By 10:38 AM, the bond market showed a slight bounce with MBS rising by 2 ticks (0.06), while the 10-year yield increased 1 basis point to 4.098%. By 1:13 PM, the market peaked for the day, with MBS gaining 3 ticks (0.09) and the 10-year yield dropping slightly to 4.092%. By 3:43 PM, further gains were noted, with MBS climbing 5 ticks (0.16) and the 10-year yield easing down to 4.087%.
Conclusion
The bond market on December 2 demonstrated consistent daylong gains, reflecting modest investor optimism. With significant economic reports expected soon, traders are on alert for potential market shifts.
